Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.