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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.